Champion's League for 11/24

quantumleap · Nov 24, 2004

Barcelona -1.5 -114 over Celtic
I try to stay away from spreads such as this on teams that only need a draw to advance, but Barcelona is playing some of the best ball of anyone in the world right now. They outplayed Real Madrid over the weekend beating them 3-0.

Werder Bremen -114 over Inter Milan (1.2 units)
Werder Bremen/Inter Milan draw+240 (0.8 units)
Bremen is another team that needs to do well to guarantee advancement to the next round. They need at least one point (a tie) to do that. Inter Milan will be resting a few players for the upcoming weekend match against Juve. Inter has 10 draws in 12 Serie A matches this year and I feel that is the best they will get here as well.

Moscow -110 over Porto (1.30 units)
Porto/Moscow draw +245 (0.7 units)
Porto has scored 1 goal in 4 CL matches. While Moscow has only scored 2 goals they are in a better position to advance and are at home.

PSG/Chelsea under 2.5 -133
Chelsea has been guaranteed passage into the next round and also will be resting players. PSG has scored 2 goals in 4 CL matches.

quantumleap · Nov 24, 2004

I'm removing Barcelona from my selection for 11/24. I guess I'm gun-shy from losing similar bets last week in WCQ matches by taking Romania and Lithuania as large favorites. I'm trying to be more selective.

I also didn't include Arsenal over PSV and Arsenal/PSV draw as there are too many injuries on the Arsenal side. Plenty of other opportunities ahead to make that bet but not in this spot on the road.

GameBreaker · Nov 24, 2004

That's some smart thinking quantum, there's always another day! Good luck to you in the future, I always pay attention.

quantumleap · Nov 24, 2004

Thanks GameBreaker. Glad you're along for the ride.

Wednesday's results:
Bremen 1, Inter 1 (+1.92)
Porto 1, Moscow 0 (-2.00)
Chelsea 0, PSG 0 (+0.75)

Net for the day: +0.67
Net for the series: +2.65

Total series: 13 winning series, 7 losing series, 1 draw
Total net: +18.03

Poopanugget · Nov 24, 2004

Leap,

With all due respect doesn't the Inter Milan match grade out as +.72?

Please correct me if I am wrong.

Very Sincerely,

Poopanugget

quantumleap · Nov 24, 2004

Poopanugget said:
Leap,

With all due respect doesn't the Inter Milan match grade out as +.72?

Please correct me if I am wrong.

Very Sincerely,

Poopanugget

You are quite right Poopanugget. I was at work with one eye watching out for my boss when I must have forgotten to subtract the loss. Thanks for pointing that out. I'll have to wait until I get my numbers put in my spreadsheet before posting them in the future.

Revised numbers-

Wednesday's results:
Bremen 1, Inter 1 (+0.72)
Porto 1, Moscow 0 (-2.00)
Chelsea 0, PSG 0 (+0.75)

Net for the day: -0.53
Net for the series: +1.45

Total series: 13 winning series, 7 losing series, 1 draw
Total net: +16.83

Just an FYI on the ones I passed on-

Arsenal 1, PSV 1
Barcelona 1, Celtic 1

Barcelona draws with Celtic yet AC Milan beats Shakhtar 4-0. I have some more studying to do to see why some heavy favorites do well while others settle for the draw.

LogansRun · Nov 25, 2004

QL, nice non-play on Barca. That could have been expensive. The Chelsea-PSG under was a good bet once the Porto-CSKA final came in before the game started. I think that dictated PSG's strategy and they played for the draw.

quantumleap · Nov 25, 2004

I hadn't thought of the Porto-CSKA angle, but then again, I had CSKA picked for that match.

One of the reasons I took this match as an under is because Chelsea's main goalkeeper was benched, some say for allowing a tying goal in their last match. I knew the substitute goalkeeper would want to do well to get more playing time. I also figured PSG had given up on the CL.

Chelsea qualifies for what I call a "bad beat" situation. That's where they get beat (or in this case a draw where they should have won) and they do well the next game to make amends. We'll have to see the spread to be sure.

soccerbob · Nov 25, 2004

quantum- That result in the Chelsea game is a perfect example of why they won't win the Premiership and why they'll get knocked off in the Champion's League. Their offense simply takes way too many games off. Even with Chelsea resting some regulars, that match was a situation where they're playing an average French team at home in the world's premier soccer club competition and they get held scoreless.

quantumleap · Nov 25, 2004

soccerbob:

After first reading your post I had a tendency to disagree with you. But after mulling it over a bit I think I can see your point. Sure they were resting some of their players but the players who were playing didn't do well against a team that was out of contention. A truly good team would rely upon those second-tier players at some time during the season to win the league or tournament.

On a related note, who do you feel can beat Chelsea in the EPL? Arsenal perhaps but they have shown the same lackluster effort against weaker foes. Everton? They are a good defensive team. I guess I don't know enough about them to make an opinion. Certainly Man Utd. is too far out to make a run.